The US government has a goal: net-zero emissions by 2050. Our analysis maps out a pathway to this net-zero frontier—and the growth opportunities that $27 trillion of capital spending could create.

Deployment of mainstream and early-stage climate technologies will also require new infrastructure: charging stations and battery supply chains for EVs; rare-minerals supply and transmission lines for renewables; electrolyzers to make hydrogen and pipelines to transport it. This expansion could allow companies to invest in developing new low-emissions capital projects and in decarbonizing existing assets.

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Clean fuels. The shift toward renewable power would also expand production of green hydrogen, which would serve as a zero-emissions energy carrier and as a clean-fuel feedstock for hard-to-abate sectors. The US Department of Energy’s “Hydrogen Shot” initiative⁴ aims to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen 80 percent in one decade, to $1 per one kilogram, which would bring hydrogen much closer to cost parity with natural gas for most applications.⁵ Our analysis suggests that by 2030, US output of green hydrogen and blue hydrogen could reach three million metric tons per year. By 2050, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels would meet about 15 percent of US final energy demand. Other clean fuels, such as biofuels, could replace fossil fuels in applications where hydrogen is less practical, notably aviation. Regions that have both the resources to supply these fuels and the demand for them from local industries could become important hubs for clean-fuel adoption; these regions include Chicago, Houston, and Los Angeles.

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